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Your boss just asked you to justify next quarter’s budget.
Or you’re job hunting and wondering which skills will actually matter in two years.
Or you’re staring at a media plan that looks almost identical to last year’s, and something about that bothers you.
Here’s what the data says. US ad spend is projected to grow 9.5% this year, accelerated by a structural shift toward performance-led strategies and the rapid adoption of agentic AI. Globally, digital advertising alone will reach $781 billion. That’s according to the IAB’s 2026 Outlook Study and Affinco’s annual digital ad spend analysis.
That’s not just a big number. It’s a map. And right now, your career is somewhere on it.
The Budget Data You Actually Need to See
Forget the conference circuit. Forget the LinkedIn hot takes. Follow the money.
01 Social is eating the internet.
US social ad spend climbed from $74.9 billion to $83.3 billion in 2025 – an 11% jump – and now accounts for more than half of all tracked digital spending. This year, the IAB projects another 14.6% on top of that.
Source: AdClarity and IAB 2026 Outlook Study.
02 Connected TV is no longer a test budget.
CTV hit $33.1 billion in 2025, growing 15% year-on-year. The IAB projects a further 13.8% this year. Meanwhile, linear TV is expected to decline 1.7%. The power dynamic has flipped.
Source: Winterberry Group; IAB.
03 Retail media is the quiet winner.
Marketers spent $204 billion on retail advertising in 2025 – considerably more than the entire linear TV market. Retail media is now the fastest-growing digital channel, at 14.1% projected growth this year. The reason is simple: shoppers increasingly start their search on Amazon, not Google, and the measurement is closed-loop.
Source: Affinco.
04 Search is still the biggest channel, but not the exciting one.
Search advertising will hit approximately $390 billion globally this year. It’s essential. It’s reliable. It’s just not where the momentum is.
Source: Affinco.

The Creator Economy Is No Longer “Influencer Marketing”
Influencer marketing used to be what you handed the intern. That era is over.
US creator economy ad spend will hit $44 billion in 2026. Within that, paid amplification of creator content alone jumps 48% to $13 billion. The average ROI is $5.78 per dollar spent – top campaigns reach $18. Source: IAB; Influencer Marketing Hub.
71% of organizations increased creator investment last year. Nearly two-thirds of that new spend came directly out of traditional paid and digital budgets. Source: CreatorIQ.
Winterberry Group’s 2026 outlook is clear. Brands now prioritize transaction capability over awareness metrics. This isn’t a brand-building channel anymore. It’s a revenue channel.
The channel has graduated. The only teams that haven’t noticed are the ones still treating it as experimental.
What’s Slowing Down – And Why It Matters
Email and SMS grew 1.9% in 2025. The slowest of any online channel. Display is growing at half the sector average. Linear TV is declining – and the only thing softening that in 2026 is the World Cup, the Winter Olympics, and the US midterms. Source: Winterberry Group; IAB.
These channels still have a role. They’re your stable base.
But if they’re absorbing the majority of your budget while social, CTV, and creator partnerships grow at 13–15% annually, you’re not being cautious. You’re falling behind at scale.


The Skill Nobody’s Hiring for Yet – But Will Be
AI is reorganising how every channel gets found. And most teams aren’t ready.
44% of AI-powered search users now say AI is their primary source of insight. Traditional search sits at 31%. Source: McKinsey AI Discovery Survey, August 2025.
AEO and GEO have moved from emerging ideas to operational disciplines. 73% of marketers are prioritizing AI-structured content. 94% of CMOs are increasing AEO/GEO investment this year. Enterprises are already allocating 12% of digital budgets to it. Source: IAB; Conductor.
The salary data makes the career case. Experian is hiring AEO/GEO managers at $100,000–$174,000.
These jobs didn’t exist two years ago.
If your content isn’t structured for AI engines – not just Google – you’re optimizing for a landscape that’s already moved.
What This Means for Your Career
The budget data is also a job description for the marketer who’ll be in demand in three years.
Early career: learn creator partnerships and CTV now. Not as a side project. The pipeline of people who actually understand these channels is still thin. That’s your window.
Mid-career: search and display got you here. But if you can’t speak fluently about creator economics, retail media, or AI visibility, you’ll sound dated in the rooms where strategy gets decided.
Senior: the question isn’t whether to shift budget. It’s how fast, and whether your team can execute it. Your CEO is reading the same IAB data. The conversation is coming.
If you’re the person defending the status quo while competitors build creator programmes and AEO infrastructure, you’re not being cautious. You’re being the bottleneck.


The Practical Move This Quarter
You don’t need to rebuild your media mix. You need to find the budget going to channels growing below 5% and move some of it somewhere growing at 13–20%.
NP Digital’s framework: 70% to proven channels, 20% to growth opportunities, 10% to experiments. That 10% is where your next skill set lives.
Find it. Move it. Learn from it. Repeat next quarter.
The marketers running departments in five years can defend the search budget and make the case for the creator partnership. The data shows where the money is going. The only question is whether your skills are keeping pace.
FAQ: Marketing Budget Trends 2026
US ad spend is projected to grow 9.5% in 2026, reaching a global digital advertising market of approximately $781 billion. Growth is concentrated in social media (+14.6%), connected TV (+13.8%), the creator economy ($43.9B in the US), and retail media (+14.1%). Source: IAB 2026 Outlook Study; Affinco.
Retail media leads at 14.1% projected growth, followed by social media at 14.6%, creator/influencer partnerships (projected to exceed $40 billion globally), and connected TV at 13.8%. Source: IAB; Mordor Intelligence; Affinco.
AEO, GEO, creator partnership strategy, CTV media buying, and first-party data strategy are the fastest-growing skill demands — reflected in active job postings from Stripe, Experian, and Capital One, and in Conductor’s 2026 CMO Investment Report.
Significantly. 73% of marketers are now prioritising content optimised for AI-generated answers (IAB). 94% of CMOs plan to increase AEO/GEO investment this year, and enterprises are already allocating an average of 12% of digital budgets to AI search visibility (Conductor).
Linear TV is projected to decline 1.7% (IAB). Email and SMS grew just 1.9% in 2025 (Winterberry Group). Display advertising is growing at roughly half the sector average. Traditional media — print, radio, out-of-home — faces cuts, with a third of marketers planning to reduce spend there (Clutch).
Sources
- IAB 2026 Outlook Study, January 2026 — iab.com
- Winterberry Group: Outlook for Advertising, Marketing and Data 2026, January 2026
- AdClarity: Inside 2025 US Digital Ad Spend and What It Means for 2026, January 2026
- Affinco: Digital Ad Spend Statistics 2026
- Conductor: State of AEO/GEO in 2026: CMO Investment Report
- CreatorIQ: State of Creator Marketing 2025–2026
- Digiday: In Graphic Detail — Creator Economy 2026, December 2025
- Mordor Intelligence: Influencer Marketing Market Size 2026
- Influencer Marketing Hub: Benchmark Report 2025
- Clutch: Marketing Budget Planning in 2026, January 2026
- NP Digital: How Marketers Are Spending Their Money in 2026, January 2026
- Marketing Brew: How CMOs Are Thinking About AI in 2026, January 2026
- McKinsey & Company: New Front Door to the Internet — Winning in the Age of AI Search (AI Discovery Survey, August 2025, n=1,927)
- Digiday: What Does Media Spend Look Like for 2026?, January 2026
- eMarketer: FAQ on GEO and AEO, April 2026
About the author
Nicola Ziady is a CMO and marketing leadership strategist with 20+ years across healthcare, higher education, and growth marketing. She writes weekly on AI, marketing strategy, and what’s actually working at a senior level — for the marketers who don’t have time for noise. nicolaziady.com
Published: 12 January 2026 Updated: 5 April 2026 — figures updated to reflect IAB 2026 Outlook Study and Winterberry Group annual data release.