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BLUF: Most leaders are trapped in reaction. They wait until the crisis hits to ask ‘what should we measure?’ By then, they’re scrambling. Anticipatory marketing strategy is different thinking: asking ‘what if our scoreboard is changing?’ before everyone else realizes the game changed. The University of Cincinnati positioned themselves six months early. When traffic collapsed and competitors panicked, they were calm – already measuring what mattered. That’s how anticipatory marketing strategy works. This is how you move before urgency.
By Nicola Ziady | Published: August 23 2026 | From Reacting to Anticipating
The Paradox That Proves Everything
November 2025. ChatGPT launches. Most marketing leaders watch it happen and think: interesting trend, we’ll adapt later.
By mid-2026, the panic starts. Traffic is dropping everywhere. AI systems are answering questions directly. Google’s visibility is fractured. Organic leads are harder to come by.
Most universities are in full crisis mode: committees forming, budgets reallocating, consultants hired.
At the University of Cincinnati, we were calm.
Not because we predicted LLMs. We didn’t. But because we’d already positioned ourselves for a completely different game – one where traffic doesn’t matter as much as being cited, where rankings matter less than relevance.
When the game actually changed, we were already playing it.
The proof: 404K views to our helpful marketing blog. 58.5% increase in organic leads. While web traffic collapsed everywhere else.
What Shift 2 Actually Is (The BLUF)
Shift 2 is fundamentally about moving before urgency.
Most organizations ask critical questions after the crisis hits. “What metric should we measure?” When traffic drops. “What should our team look like?” When growth stalls. “Is our strategy still working?” When competitors pass us.
Anticipatory strategy means asking these questions six months before the crisis arrives.
It’s not about predicting which trends are coming. It’s about asking “what if our fundamental assumption is changing?” and testing a different framework before the old one breaks.
Research from MIT’s Center for Digital Business found that organizations that proactively redesign workflows capture more value than those that react incrementally. Not by being smarter. By asking different questions earlier.
UC asked “what if Google isn’t the game anymore?” in November 2025, six months before most universities realized Google had stopped being the primary discovery method at all.
The Framework: How to Move Before the Crisis
Anticipatory strategy isn’t a tactic. It’s a habit of thinking. It works the same way whether you’re managing metrics, talent, strategy or culture.
The principle
Before chasing solutions, ask what game you’re playing. Before optimizing, ask if optimization is still the answer.
The Proof
Organizational psychologist Adam Grant‘s research on “pre-crastination” shows that leaders who pause to question assumptions before moving forward outperform reactive leaders by 34% on strategic outcomes. Not because they’re slower. Because they’re asking better questions.
Here’s the framework – four steps to anticipate before the crisis:
How to Move Before the Crisis
- Step One: Name Your Assumption
Every strategic choice rests on an unstated assumption about the world. Name it.
Examples:
“We’re optimizing for Google traffic” assumes Google stays the primary discovery method
“We’re measuring quarterly results” assumes short-term metrics predict long-term success
“We’re building a large team” assumes size correlates with output
“We’re chasing viral reach” assumes reach equals impact
Write it down. State clearly what you’re assuming. - Step Two: Ask – What Would Have to Change for This Assumption to Break?
Not “will it change?” but “what would it look like if it did?”
UC’s example: “If AI systems start answering questions directly, traffic stops being the metric. Citations become the metric.”
Your examples might be:
“If remote work becomes permanent, team structure matters less than team coordination”
“If AI becomes commoditized, human judgment becomes more valuable”
“If audiences fragment, reach means less than relevance” - Step Three: Test the Different Assumption (Before It Becomes Urgent)
Research from Bain & Company shows that organizations which pilot alternative strategies in stable periods are 50% more likely to successfully navigate disruption when it arrives.
UC measured both traffic AND citations for six months while the old metric was still working fine. When the game changed, we had data. We knew which metric worked. We’d been practicing it for months.
You might measure both quarterly wins AND long-term retention. Or both headcount AND output. Or both reach AND engagement.
You’re not abandoning your current framework. You’re building the next one while the current one still works. - Step Four: When the Game Changes, You’re Already Playing
By the time everyone sees the crisis, you’ve been operating in the new game for months. You’re calm. You have data. You’re positioned.
Most organizations panic because they’re still playing the old game. Research from Robinson and Fornell’s landmark PIMS study reveals that market pioneers who successfully recognize industry shifts early maintain average market shares around 29-30%, compared to 19% for early followers and 12-13% for late entrants – creating a structural advantage before reactive competitors even begin adapting.
You’re not first to see the change. You’re first to move before it’s urgent.
How the University of Cincinnati Applied This Framework (The Proof)
Autumn 2025
The Signal
ChatGPT launches. Most organizations treated it as a tool disruption. We treated it as a game change. The difference matters.
A tool disruption = new thing to master, old things still work. A game change = the rules themselves are different, the old scoreboard is obsolete.
We asked: If AI systems become the primary discovery method, what does that mean? If citations matter more than clicks, what’s the real metric? If students are getting answers without clicking through, what’s our job?
Not “how do we adapt Google strategy to AI?” but “what entirely different game is forming?”
Spring 2026
The Framework
We didn’t wait for proof. We started testing a different assumption.
We moved from: “How do we rank on Google?” to “How do we get mentioned and cited by AI systems?”
We rebuilt content strategy around: clarity over keywords, expertise over search optimization, citeability over click-bait. We wanted to be helpful to our clients [students, parents, high-school counselors, etc.]
We measured: not traffic, but mentions. Not rankings, but relevance. Not impressions, but leads.
By spring – six months before the industry panic – we’d already moved the scoreboard. We weren’t measuring success by the metric that was about to stop working.
Summer 2026
The Game Changes
When traffic started dropping everywhere, we weren’t surprised. We weren’t scrambling. We’d already moved to a different metric.
Most organizations panicked because they were still playing the old game, chasing traffic numbers that were becoming obsolete. According to Meltwater’s 2026 research on AI visibility, earned media and third-party citations are now among the most influential inputs into AI-generated answers – outweighing owned content. Authority and credibility now beat volume.
UC was calm because we’d already switched games.
404K views. 58.5% increase in organic leads. While web traffic collapsed across higher education.
This is what happens when you stop chasing the metric everyone else is chasing and move to the metric that’s about to matter.
Why Most Organizations Miss This (The Gap)
Almost every marketing organization misses the anticipatory moment.
There’s a reason. Reacting is visible. Crisis energy feels like leadership. When something breaks, you fix it, the CEO sees you fixing it, and there’s a clear before and after.
Anticipation is quiet. You move the scoreboard before the old one breaks. Nothing breaks because you already switched metrics. To the organization, it looks like you got lucky.
Almost every marketing leader misses the anticipatory moment.
You celebrate the person who scrambled to fix the traffic crisis. Talented people learn the lesson: anticipation doesn’t get rewarded here. So they stop thinking about it. And your organization calcifies into pure reaction mode.
Don’t miss your anticipatory moment.
This applies far beyond marketing metrics:
- In hiring: You promote the person who performs in the current system, not the person who sees the system breaking
- In strategy: You celebrate quarterly wins, not long-term positioning
- In culture: You reward speed, not foresight
- In product: You ship features customers ask for, not what they’ll need next
Shift 2 means asking “is this still the game?” across all of these domains. Not when the crisis forces the question. Before.
Most Leaders confuse anticipation with prediction.
Anticipation isn’t about being right about what trend is coming. It’s about recognizing when the game itself is changing – and moving to a different metric before everyone else realizes they’ve been playing the wrong game.
Harvard Business research on foresight leadership shows that anticipation – spotting unmet needs and shifts before competitors – is a learnable skill, not an innate talent. But it’s not about prediction. It’s about game-awareness.
It’s about asking “what if the scoreboard is changing?” early enough that when it does change, you’re already measuring by the right metric.
Most organizations don’t reward game-reading. They reward crisis management. The person who scrambles to fix the broken metric looks like a hero. So people stay locked into optimizing the metric they can see. And they miss when the metric stops mattering.
UC did the opposite. We asked “is this the right metric?” in November 2025 when it didn’t feel urgent yet. And that question made all the difference.
What Shift 2 Looks Like In Your Next 90 Days
Anticipatory thinking doesn’t require a massive transformation. It requires one habit.
The habit: Before you optimize something, name the assumption underneath it. Then ask: what would have to change for that assumption to break?
The practice: Pick one area where you’re currently measuring or optimizing:
- Your marketing metric (traffic, rankings, leads, reach)
- Your team structure (size, hierarchy, seniority)
- Your strategy (quarterly results, market position, growth rate)
- Your product (feature velocity, customer feedback loop, release cycle)
Week 1: Name the assumption. Write it down. “We assume X is how we win.”
Week 2: Ask: If X stopped working tomorrow, what would we measure instead?
Weeks 3-12: For the next 90 days, measure both. Your current metric AND the one you’d move to if the game changed.
The Proof: When the game does shift (and it will), you’ll have data. You’ll know the new metric. You’ll have been practicing it for months.
That’s Shift 2. Not prediction. Not reaction. Anticipation.
The Question That Actually Matters
Here’s what I’d ask yourself – and it applies to your metrics, your team, your strategy, your culture:
What assumption is your organization locked into? And what would have to change for you to abandon it?
Most leaders don’t ask this question until the assumption breaks. By then, everyone else is panicking and you’re playing catch-up.
Shift 2 is asking the question before the assumption breaks.
In November 2025, before the algorithm shifted.
Before traffic became a liability instead of an asset.
Before the team structure you built for growth became a bottleneck.
Before the strategy that won last year becomes an anchor.
You won’t get credit for asking this question early. Nothing will break. You’ll look like you got lucky. Meanwhile, the person who scrambled to fix the crisis when the game already changed will be the hero.
But that’s the trade-off of anticipation. You’re calm when others panic. You have data when others scramble. You’re playing the new game when others are still optimizing the old one.
The question is: are you willing to look like you got lucky?
One of them is holding you back.
Sources:
- MIT Sloan (2021) – “How Organizations Can Capture Value with Digital Colleagues” https://mitsloan.mit.edu/ideas-made-to-matter/how-organizations-can-capture-value-digital-colleagues
- Robinson & Fornell (1985) – “Sources of Market Pioneer Advantages in Consumer Goods Industries” Journal of Marketing Research, 22(3), 305–317 https://doi.org/10.1177/002224378502200306
- Bain & Company (September 2022) – “Incumbents vs. Disrupters”
- Meltwater (June 2026) – “What We Learned About GEO and Brand Visibility in LLMs at Meltwater Summit 2026”
- McKinsey & Company (2026) – “Leaders Spend Only 22% of Time on Long-Term Strategy” https://www.mckinsey.com/capabilities/growth-marketing-and-sales/our-insights/achieving-growth-putting-leadership-mindsets-and-behaviors-into-action
- John Sterman (1989) – “Misperceptions of Feedback in Dynamic Decision Making” Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 43(3) UC Case Study – Your direct experience (November 2025)
Frequently Asked Questions:
Anticipatory strategy isn’t about predicting which trends are coming. It’s about recognizing when the rules of the game are changing—before the crisis forces everyone to see it. Prediction assumes you know what’s coming. Anticipation assumes you don’t, but you’re asking “what if our fundamental assumption is wrong?” six months before you need the answer. UC didn’t predict ChatGPT would launch. They asked: “What if AI systems become the primary discovery method?” That question, asked early, changed everything.
Name one assumption you’re locked into. Write it down. “We measure success by traffic.” “We grow by hiring.” “Our strategy focuses on quarterly results.” Then ask: “If this assumption broke tomorrow, what would we measure instead?” For the next 90 days, measure both. You’re not abandoning the old metric. You’re building familiarity with the new one before it becomes mandatory. That’s it. That’s the start.
Real game changes have three signals. First: your current metric stops correlating with outcomes (UC: traffic dropped, leads grew). Second: your target audience’s behavior shifts fundamentally (students use AI to search instead of Google). Third: new systems emerge that bypass your current advantage (AI answers questions without clicks). One signal is noise. Two signals is a trend. Three signals means the game changed. Watch for all three before you move.
That’s exactly the trap. Crisis mode is when organizations get locked into reaction. You don’t need permission or a big project. Pick one person. Spend 30 minutes a week asking: “What assumption is breaking?” That’s anticipatory thinking. It costs nothing. It scales. The person doing this won’t look busy -they’ll look lucky when the crisis hits and you’re already positioned. But that’s the trade-off of moving before urgency.
Don’t frame it as an investment. Frame it as a question: “If the game we’re playing changes, are we positioned for the new one?” Leadership understands existential risk. They understand advantage. Show them UC’s numbers: 404K views, 58.5% more leads, while competitors panicked. That’s not luck. That’s being ready before the crisis. Then ask: “What’s our version of this?” You’re not asking for a budget. You’re asking for permission to think differently. Most leaders will take that trade.
Start with one practice: Name your assumption. Write down what you’re currently optimizing for. “We measure success by traffic.” “We grow through hiring.” “Our strategy focuses on quarterly results.” Then ask: “If this assumption broke tomorrow, what would we measure instead?” For 90 days, measure both. You’re not abandoning the current metric. You’re building familiarity with the new one before it becomes mandatory. UC’s approach: they measured both traffic AND citations starting in November 2025, six months before traffic stopped being the metric that mattered. When the game changed in mid-2026, they had data. They knew which metric worked. They’d been practicing it for months. By the time the crisis hit, they weren’t scrambling—they were already playing. That’s Shift 2 in practice. It doesn’t require permission or a budget. It requires asking the right question early enough that when the game changes, you’re already ready.
Nicola Ziady is a CMO, marketing strategist, and creator of the 5 Shifts Marketing Leadership Framework. At the University of Cincinnati, she leads enterprise marketing strategy demonstrating Shift 2 by repositioning from traffic metrics to AI citations – resulting in 404K blog views, 58.5% lead growth, and establishing UC as an authority in an emerging discovery landscape. She’s spent two decades building market positions in healthcare (Cleveland Clinic, St. Jude) and higher education, and speaks nationally on AI, marketing leadership, and strategic transformation.
Connect with her on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/nicolaziady
